At first glance, the idea of Russian President Vladimir Putin cozying up to U.S. President Donald Trump might sound like a stretch. For years, the U.S. and Russia have been locked in a tense standoff—sanctions, proxy wars, and icy rhetoric defining their relationship. But as Trump begins his second term in 2025, something seems to be shifting. Could Putin be warming to Trump’s outstretched hand? And if so, could this pull Russia away from its tight embrace with China, reshaping the global power map? Let’s dive into the evidence and what it might mean.
A Thaw in the Cold U.S.-Russia Relationship
Since Trump took office again, signs of a U.S.-Russia thaw have started to emerge. The Kremlin’s Dmitry Peskov recently admitted that while fixing relations won’t be easy, both Trump and Putin seem willing to try. “The road ahead is quite long and difficult, but at least the two presidents have expressed political will in this direction,” Peskov said in early March. That’s a big deal coming from Putin’s inner circle.
Actions back up these words. At the United Nations, the U.S. has surprisingly sided with Russia twice on votes about Ukraine—a move that raised eyebrows worldwide. High-level talks in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials hint at deeper cooperation. And here’s the kicker: Trump’s team is reportedly floating a bold idea—slashing defense spending by 50% alongside Russia and China. Putin himself confirmed he’s open to it, suggesting the U.S. and Russia could lead the cuts, with China free to join if it wants. If this happens, it could mark a historic pivot from rivalry to pragmatism.
For Putin, this could be a lifeline. Russia’s economy has been battered by sanctions since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and a friendlier U.S. might offer relief. But there’s more at play here than just U.S.-Russia ties. The real question is whether this shift could loosen Russia’s grip on its “no-limits” partnership with China.
Cracks in the Russia-China Bromance
Russia and China have been tight for years, united by their shared dislike of Western dominance. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have paraded their friendship, with Russia leaning on China for trade and support after Western sanctions hit hard. But lately, that partnership is showing strain—and Putin might be looking for an exit strategy.
One big issue is money. Russia switched to using the Chinese yuan after being cut off from Western financial systems, but now Chinese banks are getting cold feet. Fearing U.S. penalties, they’re hesitating to send yuan to Russian banks. “We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said German Gref, head of Russia’s Sberbank. A Russian central bank report found that a quarter of exporters are struggling with foreign transactions, and nearly half say it’s getting worse. For Putin, this is a red flag—relying on China isn’t as reliable as it once seemed.
Then there’s the military tech tension. China wants Russia’s advanced submarine technology to boost its naval power in the Pacific, but Putin’s not eager to share. U.S. intelligence warns that if China gets its hands on this tech, it could challenge American dominance under the sea. Russia’s hesitation shows it doesn’t fully trust Beijing, especially as China’s own military ambitions grow. These cracks suggest Putin might be open to other options—like a deal with Trump.
Trump’s Big Play: A “Reverse Nixon”?
Some are calling Trump’s moves a “reverse Nixon,” flipping the script on President Richard Nixon’s 1970s strategy. Back then, Nixon cozied up to China to split it from the Soviet Union, reshaping the Cold War. Now, Trump might be trying to pull Russia away from China to weaken Beijing’s global clout. It’s a bold idea, but can it work?
Trump’s approach is clear. He’s pushed Ukraine into a ceasefire with Russia, sidelined Kyiv’s demands for security guarantees, and even praised Putin while criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At a fiery February meeting, Trump told Zelenskyy the U.S. has done enough, hinting he’d rather deal with Moscow. His administration’s Keith Kellogg has openly said the U.S. wants to “break” the Russia-China-North Korea alliance, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called Russia’s dependence on China a problem for Washington.
But not everyone’s convinced this is a grand master plan. Trump’s also sent mixed signals to China—slapping tariffs on its goods while talking up a “great” relationship with Xi Jinping. Experts like historian Michael Clarke argue the “reverse Nixon” label doesn’t fit. Unlike Nixon’s era, when China and the Soviet Union were already at odds, Russia and China are closer than ever today. Plus, Putin’s deep distrust of the U.S., built over decades of rocky relations, won’t vanish overnight.
What’s in It for Putin?
For Putin, a warmer U.S. relationship could be a game-changer. Russia’s economy is hurting, and China’s reluctance to fully support Moscow—whether through cash or tech—limits its options. If Trump offers sanctions relief or economic partnerships, Putin might see a chance to regain leverage. Russia could play the U.S. and China off each other, boosting its global standing without being tied to just one power.
The Arctic is a key battleground here. China’s “Polar Silk Road” relies on Russia’s Arctic territory, but if Putin tilts toward the U.S., Beijing could lose its foothold in this resource-rich region. That would be a major blow to China’s long-term plans—and a win for Trump’s strategy.
The Global Fallout
If Putin warms to Trump, the ripple effects could be huge. China might find itself isolated, losing Russia’s support in disputes like the South China Sea or Taiwan. Europe, already wary of Trump’s Russia pivot, might rethink its own alliances if the U.S. drifts too far from NATO’s orbit. And for Putin, balancing ties with both the U.S. and China could give Russia more room to maneuver.
But it’s not a done deal. Putin’s spent over 20 years viewing the U.S. as an enemy, and Trump’s unpredictable style—praising Putin one day, threatening sanctions the next—might not build lasting trust. China, despite its tensions with Russia, remains a steady partner Moscow can’t easily ditch.
Can Trump Pull It Off?
So, is Putin really warming to Trump? The signs are there—talks, deals, and a shared willingness to rethink old rivalries. But pulling Russia from China’s sphere won’t be easy. Beijing’s economic pull is strong, and Putin’s not one to gamble Russia’s future on a shaky U.S. promise. Trump might be playing a high-stakes game, but whether he can rewrite the global order—or even convince Putin to take the bait—remains up in the air. For now, the world’s watching to see who blinks first.
