In the wake of the 2024 presidential election, a surprising trend is emerging among Generation Z—those born between 1997 and 2012. While young voters have historically leaned progressive, recent data reveals a growing divide, particularly among young men, that’s reshaping the political landscape. This shift, driven by economic concerns, cultural disconnects, and a notable gender gap, could have major implications for the 2026 midterms and beyond. Let’s dive into what’s fueling Gen Z’s voting behavior and why it matters.
One of the most striking trends is the widening gender gap among Gen Z voters. According to a recent NBC poll, 45% of Gen Z men approve of former President Donald Trump’s performance, compared to just 24% of Gen Z women—a 21-point difference. This gap is much larger than in older generations, where, for example, those aged 30 to 44 show only a 9-point divide. The 2024 election highlighted this split, with Trump gaining significant ground among young men while young women shifted further left.
But the story isn’t just about men versus women—it’s also about race. Data from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), a major academic survey, shows that young men of color are a key force behind this trend. Between 2020 and 2024, support for the Democratic presidential candidate among young Black, Asian, and Hispanic men dropped sharply from 76.1% to 57.3%—an 18.8-point decline. Meanwhile, support among young women of color also fell, from 85% to 77%, but the gender gap remains wide at 19.7 points. In contrast, the gender gap among young white voters is much smaller, with only a 3.2-point difference in Democratic support between men and women.
What’s driving this shift among young men, especially men of color? Economic fairness and financial security are top priorities, according to Daniel Cox, a pollster at the Survey Center on American Life. Unlike cultural issues like diversity, which resonate more with college-educated women (a growing demographic within the Democratic Party), young men feel increasingly disconnected from the party’s messaging. “Trump, in attacking the political and economic system, appeals to young Hispanic and Black men who feel economically shut out and politically unrepresented,” Cox explains. The Democratic Party’s focus on cultural issues, he argues, has left some young men feeling like they don’t fit in.
Interestingly, this shift in voting behavior doesn’t fully align with political ideology. While young men are voting more Republican, they’re not necessarily becoming more conservative. Cox notes that Gen Z as a whole still supports progressive policies like climate action, government intervention to help people, same-sex marriage, and marijuana legalization. For example, only 28% of white Gen Z men identify as liberal compared to 46% of white Gen Z women, but the generation overall leans liberal on many issues. This disconnect suggests Democrats might still have a chance to win back young men who voted for Trump but don’t fully embrace conservative ideology.
Looking ahead, polls are already showing Gen Z’s conservative leanings could impact the 2026 midterms. A Yale Youth Poll found that voters aged 18 to 21 favor Republicans by 11.7 points for Congressional elections, while those aged 22 to 29 lean Democratic by 6.4 points. This split, combined with Trump’s approval rating climbing to 52.7% among 18- to 29-year-olds (per AtlasIntel), signals a potential realignment. If this trend holds, it could bolster Republicans and challenge Democrats’ hopes of regaining ground.
Why does this matter? Young voters have long been a Democratic stronghold, but Gen Z’s shift could reshape American politics. The growing support for figures like Vice President JD Vance, who has a +54 favorability rating among young Republicans, suggests the GOP is capitalizing on this moment. Meanwhile, Democrats face the challenge of reconnecting with young men without alienating their base. As Cox optimistically notes, “This is not a generation that looks overwhelmingly conservative,” meaning there’s still room for Democrats to recover—if they can address the economic and cultural concerns driving Gen Z’s votes.