As the federal government shutdown stretches into its 35th day, the United States stands on the brink of history. By Tuesday evening, the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats will surpass the record 35-day shutdown of 2018-2019, leaving millions of Americans—from federal workers to food stamp recipients—in limbo. With Election Day 2025 underway, key races in states like New Jersey and Virginia could tip the scales, while mounting crises in air travel, healthcare, and nutrition programs add urgency to the standoff. Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed cautious optimism Monday, hinting at a possible resolution this week, but deep partisan divides show no signs of cracking easily.
The Human Cost Mounts: From Empty Plates to Grounded Flights
The shutdown’s ripple effects are hitting hard across the nation. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, which support 42 million low-income Americans, entered uncertain territory over the weekend. The Trump administration announced it would release partial funding—about $4.65 billion from a contingency fund—following a federal judge’s order. This covers roughly 50% of November’s benefits for eligible households, but full funding would require $9 billion, which officials have declined to pursue. States may face delays in distribution, exacerbating fears of hunger during the holiday season.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has argued that withholding full SNAP payments creates necessary “pressure” on Democrats to end the shutdown, rejecting pleas from within his own party to pass standalone funding bills. Yet polls indicate the public largely blames Republicans for the delay, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries accusing the administration of an “intentional decision” to shortchange families. Critics, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), have pushed “rifle-shot” bills to fund SNAP piecemeal, but Senate GOP leaders like Thune insist that fragmenting aid only prolongs the pain. “Why are we picking winners and losers?” asked Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), echoing the Republican line that a full reopening is the only fair fix.
Air travel woes are another flashpoint. A CNN analysis revealed over 400 staffing shortages at air traffic control towers this weekend—the worst since the shutdown began—coinciding with federal workers missing their first full paycheck. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned he could “shut the whole airspace down” if safety falters, a stark reminder as Thanksgiving approaches. These disruptions, while bipartisan in their impact, underscore the shutdown’s broad economic toll without clearly favoring one party.
On a brighter note for some, the military has dodged the worst. The administration twice redirected funds to ensure service members received paychecks on time, a move President Trump has touted in speeches to troops. “Despite the current Democrat-induced shutdown, we will get our service members every last penny,” he declared last month. Democrats, however, decry this as politicizing the armed forces, warning it lets Trump play the hero while essential civilians suffer.
Election Day: A Potential Game-Changer?
Today’s elections could inject fresh momentum—or fuel—for the fight. Gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia are under the spotlight, as both states lean Democratic but house swaths of affected federal employees. In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s double-digit lead in polls could embolden Democrats if she wins big, validating their hardline stance amid local pain. New Jersey’s contest, where Republican Jack Ciattarelli hopes to narrow the gap against Rep. Mikie Sherrill, might force Democrats to rethink if it turns unexpectedly tight—especially after the state’s rightward shift in the 2024 presidential race.
Republicans eye gains in Virginia’s lieutenant governor and attorney general races, the latter buoyed by scandals plaguing the Democratic candidate. A strong GOP showing anywhere could harden Republican resolve, while Democratic sweeps might ramp up demands for concessions like extended Obamacare subsidies. As CNN analyst Aaron Blake notes, these results “could be some of the most significant dominoes to fall,” potentially shifting leverage in Washington.
Obamacare Enrollment: A Ticking Time Bomb for Republicans?
Adding fuel to Democratic demands is the kickoff of Obamacare open enrollment on Saturday. Millions of marketplace enrollees are confronting premium hikes that could double next year without extended enhanced subsidies—Democrats’ key bargaining chip for reopening the government. Over 70% of Americans favor the extension, per recent surveys, and even some Republicans, like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and pollster Tony Fabrizio, have cautioned their party about the backlash.
If sticker shock hits hard in coming weeks, pressure could mount on GOP holdouts. Yet the political calculus remains murky: Will constituents’ outrage translate to votes, or will Republicans gamble on post-shutdown negotiations? For now, it’s a wildcard in the Democrats’ favor.
GOP Unity Cracks, But Not Enough: No to ‘Rifle-Shot’ Fixes
Despite internal grumbling, Senate Republicans remain united against piecemeal solutions. Bills from Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Hawley, and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to pay federal workers, air traffic controllers, or fund SNAP have stalled, often blocked by Senate Democrats. Thune, the de facto GOP quarterback, doubled down Thursday: “You start going down that road with one-off bills… and it begs the larger question, how long is this going to drag on?” He views targeted aid as a slippery slope that dilutes the push for a comprehensive deal.
Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), have blocked 13 GOP attempts to pass a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) to reopen the government. Schumer calls Thune’s resistance to SNAP funding “heartless” and “cruel,” noting his caucus would back Hawley’s bill if brought to the floor—it boasts 29 co-sponsors, including 14 Democrats. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) echoed the call: “He should call both of them up immediately… they would pass.” Skeptics like Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) dismiss such pledges as “vampire moves,” predicting Democrats would renege at the last minute.
A Glimmer of Hope? Thune’s Optimism and Next Steps
Amid the gridlock, Thune struck an unusually hopeful tone Monday. “I’m optimistic,” he told reporters, sensing an “off-ramp” based on his “gut” from past shutdowns. The Senate plans a 14th vote Tuesday on the House-passed CR, which funds the government through November 21 at current levels. But Thune flagged a snag: That deadline is unrealistic for hashing out full-year appropriations, so it “is going to have to change.” Extending it would need House approval and either unanimous Senate consent or 60 votes—potentially prying five Democrats on board.
Thune has dangled olive branches, like advancing a Senate-passed “minibus” of funding bills or scheduling a vote on Democrats’ Obamacare priorities. “They’ve got to be willing to take yes for an answer,” he urged. Still, he tempered expectations: “This is unlike any other government shutdown, in terms of the way Democrats are reacting to it.” With procedural hurdles and Trump’s shadow looming—evident in optics like White House renovations and Mar-a-Lago galas—the path remains fraught.
As the sun sets on Capitol Hill, the shutdown’s record-breaking shadow grows longer. For furloughed workers, hungry families, and harried travelers, the real question isn’t history—it’s survival. Will Election Day’s verdicts, enrollment shocks, or sheer exhaustion force a breakthrough? Or will Congress etch a new, unwelcome chapter in dysfunction? Americans wait, and watch.