The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has grounded thousands of flights, frustrated millions of travelers, and exposed deep cracks in the nation’s air traffic control system. As Congress edges closer to a deal that could reopen the government this week, many Americans hope for a quick return to smooth skies. But experts warn that the chaos at airports will not vanish overnight. Flight cancellations, delays, and reduced schedules at 40 major airports will linger for weeks—or even months—due to staffing shortages, disrupted airline operations, and ripple effects that extend far beyond the shutdown’s end.
The Immediate Trigger: FAA-Mandated Flight Cuts
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered airlines to slash flights at 40 of the busiest U.S. airports to cope with a severe shortage of air traffic controllers. These cuts started at 4% last Friday, rose to 6% on Tuesday, and are set to hit 10% by the end of the week. Since the restrictions began, airlines have canceled more than 8,000 flights, with over 2,300 scrapped on Monday alone and another 1,000 slated for Tuesday.
These reductions are not random. Airlines must cancel flights seven days in advance, notifying passengers and removing them from the system. Once a flight is cut, it cannot simply be reinstated. “For an airline to be told by the government they’ve got 36 or so hours to start dismembering their carefully built flight schedules doesn’t give airlines a lot of time,” explained Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analytics firm.
Major hubs like Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, Chicago O’Hare, and Los Angeles International are hit hardest, but the pain spreads nationwide. Connecting passengers face fewer options, higher fares, and longer layovers. The FAA has also expanded restrictions to bar many private jets and business flights from a dozen airports already under commercial limits.
Why Recovery Takes Time: The Domino Effect on Planes, Crews, and Schedules
Canceling a flight is like pulling a thread from a sweater—it unravels everything connected to it. Airlines operate on precise schedules where aircraft and crews flow in loops. “If you cancel both flights of a round-trip loop, the aircraft and crew end up in the right place later,” said Ahmed Abdelghany, associate dean at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “That avoids stranding planes and crew, which is what makes recovery possible.”
But with widespread cuts, planes are parked in the wrong cities, crews are out of position, and schedules are in disarray. Mike Taylor, who leads airline research at J.D. Power, noted that airlines must now “track down all their planes, figure out where each needs to be, and find pilots and cabin crew for those flights.” This repositioning could take days or weeks, even after the FAA lifts its order.
Restoring full capacity is a “step-up, phased-in approach,” Harteveldt added. Hopper analyst Hayley Berg emphasized that restrictions won’t end the day the government reopens: “They’re not going to lift this capacity reduction until air traffic control and the FAA are operating at the staffing level they need—and that might not happen immediately.”
The Root Cause: A Worsening Controller Shortage
The shutdown has accelerated an existing crisis. Before it began, the FAA was short 1,000 to 3,000 controllers. Now, retirements have surged from about four per day to 15–25, according to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. Unpaid for over a month, some controllers are calling out sick, citing stress and the need for second jobs. Union president Nick Daniels called members “political pawns” in the fight, while reporting growing quits and retirements.
Back pay is another hurdle. After the 2019 shutdown, it took two to two-and-a-half months for full payment. Some controllers have side gigs they can’t drop immediately, and others may never return, seeking stable jobs outside government. President Donald Trump demanded controllers “get back to work, NOW!!!” on social media, proposing $10,000 bonuses for those who stayed and pay docks for absentees. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers, condemned the threats, arguing controllers deserve support, not attacks.
Hiring efforts are stalled too. The FAA’s Oklahoma City academy was training record numbers, but funding for trainee stipends is drying up, and some students are dropping out, questioning a career with unpaid furloughs.
Lingering Delays and Broader Impacts
Delays are already severe—five hours at O’Hare on Monday, worsened by weather—and could persist for weeks. One in 10 flights nationwide was canceled on Sunday, the fourth-worst day in nearly two years, per Cirium data. Over the past six weekends, staffing issues hit an average of 30 facilities, four times pre-shutdown levels.
The financial toll is massive. Airlines, airports, concessions, and destinations lose revenue from fewer visitors. Travelers like Todd Walker, who missed his mother’s 80th birthday, face real hardships.
Thanksgiving in Jeopardy
With the holiday just weeks away, the stakes are high. If the shutdown ends this week, airlines might recover nearly fully by Thanksgiving, said aviation consultant Kit Darby, taking “a week or two” to reassemble operations. Harteveldt agreed that a deal by week’s end could allow normal schedules.
But delays risk disaster. Without resolution, more people may drive, overcrowd other transport, or cancel trips altogether. Duffy warned of air travel slowing “to a trickle,” with few controllers showing up. He even floated 20% cuts if the shutdown drags on, which Harteveldt called “crippling” for the system.
Senate progress includes a deal where eight Democrats secured a future vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies in exchange for advancing funding. The House must still act, and final passage could take days.
A Long Road Ahead
Even if the government reopens soon, the shutdown’s scars will mark air travel for months. Some passengers will need refunds as capacity can’t accommodate everyone. Rebuilding staff and trust will take time—possibly years, as lost controllers and trainees aren’t easily replaced. As Eash Sundaram, former JetBlue executive, put it, airlines face “significant challenges” in the coming weeks, with recovery a slow process.
For now, travelers should check flights daily, consider alternatives, and brace for uncertainty. The skies may clear eventually, but the shutdown’s shadow will hover long after the deal is signed.