In the heart of deep-red Tennessee, Republicans pulled off a gritty, last-minute triumph on Tuesday night that should light a fire under the party faithful. What was supposed to be a blowout in a district President Trump carried by 22 points in 2024 turned into a brutal slog, with combat veteran Matt Van Epps edging out Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine points. This wasn’t the sweeping mandate Trump demanded in his rally call—”the whole world is watching Tennessee right now,” he boomed over speakerphone to a fired-up crowd. Instead, it was a wake-up call: Our conservative core is cooling off, and if we don’t deliver real wins on the issues that matter—like slashing spending, securing the border, and fighting the radical left’s agenda—the 2026 midterms could hand the gavel back to the socialists.
The seat opened up when Rep. Mark Green, a steadfast conservative who crushed opponents by over 20 points in 2022 and 2024, stepped down in July to take on bigger fights outside Congress. Tennessee’s 7th District, a sprawling conservative stronghold stretching from Nashville’s edges through rural heartland to Clarksville, hasn’t gone blue since 1980. Trump won it handily in 2020 (by 15 points) and 2024 (by 22), and Green racked up victories north of 40 points in earlier cycles. Van Epps, a Trump-endorsed Army colonel and former state commissioner, stepped up with a no-nonsense MAGA platform: back the troops, drain the swamp, and keep America first. He swept 12 of the district’s 14 counties, proving the red wall still holds when our people show up.
But here’s the gut punch: Van Epps underperformed Trump by double digits in Trump-stronghold counties that went 70-80% red last year. Turnout among our die-hard base lagged behind 2024 levels, while energized leftists and suburban skeptics flooded the polls. Democrats poured millions into ads smearing Van Epps and hyping Behn—a progressive state rep pushing defund-the-police vibes and anti-country music nonsense, as Trump blasted on Truth Social. High-profile libs like Kamala Harris, Al Gore, and AOC jumped in with rallies and cash, turning a safe seat into a national sideshow. Even with freezing temps and sleet slowing things down, the Dems closed the gap dramatically, marking their fifth straight overperformance in 2025 specials by 16-22 points over Biden-era benchmarks.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, fighting tooth and nail to protect our slim 219-213 majority, barnstormed the district on Election Eve with Van Epps, rallying donors, state reps, and everyday patriots at a billionaire’s estate in Williamson County. “We’re delivering on our promises,” Johnson thundered, contrasting GOP grit against the “radical” Dem agenda. RNC Chair Joe Gruters joined the fray, and Trump himself dialed in multiple times, urging, “Let’s make it a sweeping victory” to prove the GOP is “stronger than it’s ever been.” It worked—just barely. Van Epps will swell our ranks to 220-213 when he’s sworn in, buying precious breathing room before Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene exits in January and more specials loom.
Yet victory tastes bittersweet when the numbers scream complacency. Recent polls paint a stark picture of our base’s fraying enthusiasm. Gallup’s latest shows Trump’s approval cratering to a second-term low of 36%, hammered by economic gripes and the longest shutdown in history that just wrapped up. Morning Consult’s “State of the Parties” reveals the GOP losing ground on trust—voters now see us as “too conservative” nearly as often as Dems as “too liberal” (40% vs. 41%), a tie that’s eroding our edge. NPR’s survey finds 80% of Republicans still confident in the party, but that’s down from peaks, with independents and working-class Hispanics—who powered Trump’s 2024 coalition—drifting away amid affordability woes. The Manhattan Institute’s deep dive into 3,000 voters warns of a split: Our traditional conservative majority is rock-solid, but the MAGA fringe feels let down on promises like border security and fiscal restraint, risking a post-Trump exodus by 2028.
This Tennessee tussle echoes November’s off-year bloodbath, where Dems swept New Jersey, Virginia, and beyond on kitchen-table rage—voters fuming that they “can’t get ahead financially” despite Trump’s White House win. Ted Cruz nailed it on Fox: “We could have lost this district because the people who showed up… are motivated by how much they dislike President Trump.” Rep. Don Bacon, eyeing retirement from his swing seat, adds: “We must reach swing voters” and fire up the base, or watch the left’s turnout machine grind us down.
The DNC crowed that Behn “blew away expectations,” calling it a “flashing warning sign” for us heading into midterms. House Majority PAC warns no GOP seat is “safe” come November 2026. They’re not wrong if we keep fumbling the ball. Years of infighting, stalled wins on immigration and spending cuts, and too much cable-news posturing have left too many conservatives feeling like we’re all talk, no action.
But here’s the rally cry: This close shave isn’t defeat—it’s our chance to reload. Speaker Johnson and Trump poured everything into this fight because they know one seat can tip the scales on Trump’s America First agenda. Van Epps, staying true to his National Guard roots, vows to join Armed Services and push back against the woke military crowd. Now, it’s on us. Pour into town halls, knock doors in every red county, and demand Congress deliver: Seal the border, gut the deep state, and make groceries affordable again. The base built this party—don’t let complacency steal our thunder. In 2026, let’s turn wake-up calls into a red wave that drowns the radicals for good. The whole world is watching. Let’s show ’em what conservatives do best: Fight, win, and build an unbreakable majority