A quiet but growing gap is opening up across the United States: people in conservative “red” states and counties are having more children than people in liberal “blue” ones. A new report from the Institute for Family Studies, a research group that focuses on marriage and parenthood, says this difference is getting bigger, especially among younger adults. If the trend continues, it could slowly shift the country’s politics, culture, and even the balance of power in Congress over the next few decades.
The Numbers Tell the Story
- Since the COVID-19 pandemic, red states have consistently had higher birth rates than blue states.
- Among adults ages 25–35, self-described conservative women are more than 30 percentage points more likely to already have children than self-described liberal women. That’s a huge jump from the 1980s, when the gap was much smaller.
- In counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump, the child population is growing; in counties that voted heavily Democratic, it’s shrinking or staying flat.
Researchers say this isn’t just random. Young conservatives are more likely to be married, more likely to be religious, and more likely to say that having kids is a top life goal. Many young liberals, on the other hand, are waiting longer to start families, often because of career goals, student debt, the high cost of housing, or different views about when (or whether) to have children.
Could This Change Future Elections?
The simplest theory is that kids usually grow up sharing at least some of their parents’ values. If conservative families keep having more children than liberal ones, the country could gradually have more conservative-leaning adults twenty or thirty years from now. That could help Republicans in close elections, give red states more seats in Congress (because seats are based on total population, including kids), and even affect school boards and local policies.
Brad Wilcox, one of the report’s authors, puts it plainly: “If one side of the political divide is having significantly more children, that has clear implications for the future direction of the country.”
But It’s Not That Simple
Not everyone agrees the future is already decided. Demographers point out several reasons to be cautious:
- Today’s babies aren’t voters yet. A lot can change in fifteen or twenty years: culture, technology, economic conditions, and the political parties themselves.
- Many liberal women do eventually have children, just later in life (after age 35). When researchers look at women at the end of their childbearing years, the overall gap in total kids per woman is much smaller.
- Donald Trump himself is a big wildcard. He pulled in new voters who don’t fit the traditional Republican mold. Once he leaves the stage, both parties could look very different.
- Immigration patterns, people moving between states, and changing views among young adults could easily cancel out or reverse today’s trend.
What It Means Right Now
Even if no one can predict the 2040 election tonight, the birth-rate divide is already real. Red areas are getting younger on average; blue areas are getting older. That affects everything from how many teachers a state needs to how much money goes into pediatric hospitals versus nursing homes.
For now, the data shows a clear pattern: conservative Americans are building bigger families at a faster rate than liberal Americans. Whether that turns into a lasting political advantage for Republicans, levels out as today’s thirty-somethings age, or gets washed away by bigger forces is one of the biggest open questions in American demographics.
One thing is certain: in a closely divided country, even small differences in who is having kids, and how many, can add up over a generation.