In 2025, Republicans are discovering that even their reddest congressional districts are no longer safe from serious Democratic challenges. With control of the U.S. House hanging by just a few seats, the GOP has been forced to pour millions of dollars into special elections that, just a year ago, would have been considered automatic wins.
The latest example unfolded on December 2 in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, a sprawling, mostly rural seat that Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024. Republicans spent $3.3 million in advertising to defend the open seat, while Democrats spent $2.4 million trying to flip it. A new Emerson College poll released days before the election showed Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by only two points—a margin so narrow that President Trump personally called into rallies twice on the final day of campaigning.
“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now,” Trump told supporters over speakerphone as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rallied voters in a supporter’s garage filled with classic cars. “It’s gonna show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been.”
But the massive spending and star power told a different story: Republicans are terrified of embarrassment in territory they once dominated.
A Pattern of Expensive Defenses
Tennessee is only the most recent case. In 2025 alone, Republicans have been forced to spend heavily in multiple districts that Trump won by double-digit margins the previous November:
- Florida’s 6th District (Trump +30 in 2024): Republicans spent $4.3 million; Democrats $4.2 million. The GOP held the seat by 14 points.
- Florida’s 1st District (Trump +37): Republicans spent nearly $1 million to win by 15 points.
- Tennessee’s 7th District (Trump +22): $3.3 million in GOP ad spending to avoid an upset.
By contrast, Democrats have barely had to lift a finger to defend their own safe seats. In Arizona’s heavily Hispanic 7th District, which Kamala Harris won 60–32 in 2024, Democrats spent just $18,000 on ads and won by 40 points. In Virginia’s 11th District (Harris +30), outside groups didn’t even bother contesting the race.
The numbers paint a stark picture of asymmetric warfare: Republicans are burning cash to protect territory that used to be cheap, while Democrats can conserve resources for the 2026 midterms.
Why Safe Seats Suddenly Aren’t Safe
Several factors have combined to make deep-red districts unexpectedly competitive.
First, turnout in special elections is notoriously low and unpredictable, especially when early voting overlaps with holidays like Thanksgiving, as it did in Tennessee. Second, Democrats have aggressively targeted these races with a mix of grassroots energy and super PAC money, betting that voter frustration over inflation, health care costs, and Trump-era policies can overcome long-standing Republican advantages.
In Tennessee, 36-year-old progressive state Rep. Aftyn Behn—often called “Tennessee’s AOC”—ran a campaign focused on working-class pocketbook issues. She was boosted by appearances from Al Gore, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and even a visit from Kamala Harris. Republicans responded by running ads highlighting Behn’s past description of herself as a “radical” and old comments criticizing Nashville tourism.
Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries summed up the GOP’s predicament bluntly: “The fact that they are spending millions of dollars to hold a seat that Donald Trump just won by 22 points is extraordinary.”
What It Means for 2026
With the House majority razor-thin, Republicans can’t afford even one embarrassing loss. A defeat in a district this red would send shockwaves through the party and give Democrats a powerful narrative heading into next year’s midterm elections.
As one Tennessee Republican voter put it while waiting to hear Speaker Johnson speak, “It’s not just winning. It’s winning by a wide enough margin to send a real message.”
For now, Republicans are paying top dollar to make sure that message isn’t one of vulnerability. But the very fact that they have to spend at all in places like rural Tennessee and the Florida Panhandle shows how much the political ground has shifted beneath their feet.