JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon offered a clear message to investors during the bank’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call: while the U.S. economy looks solid in the short term, government debt poses a serious long-term risk that leaders cannot ignore.
America’s largest bank reported revenue of $45.8 billion and assets under management totaling $4.8 trillion, an 18% increase from the previous year. Still, JPMorgan shares fell after the call, as analysts focused less on the numbers and more on Dimon’s cautious outlook about the broader economy.
Dimon described current economic conditions as mixed but generally stable. He said labor markets have softened, but not to the point of causing major concern. Consumers, he noted, continue to spend, and most businesses remain healthy. This resilience comes despite recent market volatility and uncertainty caused by shifting foreign and trade policies from the White House.
Looking ahead to 2026, Dimon struck an optimistic tone for the near future. He said the next six to twelve months appear positive, pointing to continued job growth, consumer savings, and government stimulus from the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill.” He also highlighted deregulation as a boost not just for banks, but for the economy overall, allowing companies to deploy capital more efficiently.
Dimon was also enthusiastic about the potential of artificial intelligence, calling it a powerful long-term driver of growth. However, he stressed that these positives do not erase the risks building in the background.
One of those risks, Dimon warned, is geopolitical instability. Rising global tensions could disrupt trade, financial markets, and economic growth. But his biggest concern remains government debt. “You can’t just keep on borrowing money endlessly,” he said, adding that while no one knows exactly when the problem will become critical, it will “bite eventually.”
That concern is backed up by recent data. In the final three months of 2025 alone, the U.S. government spent $276 billion just on interest payments for the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit reached $601 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, covering October through December. While that figure is $110 billion lower than the same period last year, it still reflects heavy borrowing.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that the U.S. is on track for a $2 trillion deficit in 2026. She also pointed out that the government is still not fully funded for the rest of the fiscal year, with another funding deadline approaching. MacGuineas urged lawmakers to avoid policies that increase debt further and to restore limits on discretionary spending.
White House officials have argued that tariff revenue could help offset some of the borrowing. Dimon, however, remained realistic about the limits of such measures. “We have to deal with the world we got, not the world we want,” he said, emphasizing that his focus is on serving clients rather than predicting exact economic outcomes.
A key question raised by the growing debt is: who owns it? One possible response to high debt levels is for a central bank to print more money, which can reduce the real cost of borrowing. But this approach carries major risks, including inflation or even hyperinflation. As the value of money falls, investors may demand higher interest rates, making borrowing even more expensive.
According to analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the Federal Reserve is the largest single holder of U.S. debt, owning about $4.5 trillion as of March 2025. Mutual funds hold $4.4 trillion, while state and local governments own $1.7 trillion.
Foreign investors also play a major role. Japan, China, and the United Kingdom are among the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt, owning roughly $1.1 trillion, $779 billion, and $765 billion, respectively. While holdings by Japan and the U.K. have declined gradually over the past decade, China’s purchases have dropped even more sharply.
This creates another risk. If geopolitical tensions rise, foreign governments could reduce their holdings of U.S. debt. That could weaken the dollar, raise inflation, and push interest rates higher, increasing costs for the federal government and consumers alike.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Dimon reiterated that there are “a lot of good short-term things” happening in the U.S. economy, including stimulus and deregulation. But he also called on business leaders to think beyond profits and act in the country’s best interest.
His message was clear: the economy may be strong today, but without responsible spending and long-term planning, the growing debt could undermine that strength tomorrow.