Former President Donald Trump, amidst legal challenges including 91 felony counts across four criminal cases and a history of two impeachments, still shows resilience in public opinion.
Recent polls, including an NBC News poll released Sunday, demonstrate his lead over President Biden in battleground states and nationally for a potential 2024 rematch.
Sarah Matthews, a former Trump campaign and White House spokesperson who resigned after January 6, 2021, commented on this phenomenon.
“They’re both just incredibly weak candidates, but I definitely think people have to have short memories, and they forget how chaotic the Trump years were, and they’re focused on the now,” Matthews told The Hill. “Because of their concerns about Biden’s age and his leadership thus far, it just makes people look back on the Trump years more fondly in a way.”
“These people are more reluctantly supporting Trump rather than enthusiastically supporting Trump, and that’s why when you see any other Republican against Biden, Biden gets crushed,” Matthews added.
The NBC News poll shows Trump leading Biden 46 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, a marginal lead within the poll’s margin of error. This marks a shift from September, where both were tied at 46 percent.
A Yahoo News/YouGov poll also found Trump ahead of Biden 44 percent to 42 percent, with 9 percent of respondents unsure and another 5 percent not planning to vote. A Quinnipiac University poll showed Trump with 48 percent support compared to Biden’s 46 percent, and 52 percent of voters expressed interest in other candidates for the 2024 presidential race.
Grant Reeher, director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University, interprets these polls as a reflection of Biden’s approval ratings rather than outright support for Trump.
“Some of these polls are really in a way approval ratings of President Biden, which we know are not great,” Reeher said. “So it’s not so much people saying I’d rather have Donald Trump than Joe Biden, it’s people saying I’m not happy with where the country is going, and I want an alternative.”
Reeher also noted that many voters might not be closely following Trump’s legal cases, but this could change as they proceed to trial next year.
Republican strategists and former Trump officials see these polls as evidence of Trump’s enduring popularity within the Republican base. Trump leads his Republican primary rivals by nearly 60 percentage points in national polls and maintains a significant lead in state-level primary polls.
Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist, highlighted the difference in support bases between Biden and Trump.
“The biggest difference between Biden and Trump is Trump probably has the most devoted, almost cult-like base in his own party of anyone we’ve ever seen in the last century of American politics. Biden just doesn’t have that,” Stutzman said.
Some Republicans view this as a sign of voter trust in Trump’s economic policies. A former Trump White House official suggested that voter discontent with Biden’s economic management could benefit Trump, especially among suburban voters who shifted from Trump to Biden between 2016 and 2020. The latest NBC News poll indicates a slight improvement in Biden’s economic approval rating, now at 38 percent.
While these polls have caused anxiety among Democrats, Biden’s allies argue it’s too early for definitive conclusions. They believe the political landscape could shift significantly in the next year, particularly if economic conditions improve. They also expect voter sentiment to shift once Trump is officially the nominee, as the Biden campaign and other groups will likely emphasize Trump’s record and controversial statements.
Matt Bennett, co-founder of the Third Way think tank, differentiated between polls and the actual election.
“Fundamentally they’re going to have to go into that booth and choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, two people they will know very very well,” Bennett said. He posed the election as a choice between a potentially disappointing incumbent and a controversial challenger.
