As 2025 draws to a close, President Donald Trump enters the new year facing a series of significant obstacles that could shape the remainder of his second term. With Republicans holding narrow majorities in Congress, domestic gridlock, foreign policy pressures, and the looming 2026 midterm elections all pose threats to his agenda. From potential government shutdowns to rising health care costs and ongoing diplomatic efforts, here are six major hurdles Trump must navigate in the coming months.
1. Renewed Risk of Government Shutdown
Congress returns in January with a temporary spending bill set to expire on January 30, raising the specter of another federal shutdown—the second in recent months after a record 43-day closure earlier in 2025. Lawmakers failed to pass most of the annual spending bills due to disagreements over priorities, including increased funding for immigration enforcement. A previous impasse centered on health care funding, but with some issues resolved temporarily, the focus now shifts to broader budget disputes. Republicans’ slim margins—53-47 in the Senate and 220-213 in the House (soon narrowing further)—leave little room for error in a deeply polarized Congress.
2. Soaring Health Care Costs Amid Subsidy Expiration
The end of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) on December 31 is expected to dramatically increase premiums for about 24 million Americans enrolled in marketplace plans. Experts project average premiums could more than double in some cases, hitting lower- and middle-income families hardest. Failed bipartisan efforts in Congress to extend the subsidies or offer alternatives, such as health savings account deposits, have left millions vulnerable. Some Republicans and Democrats pushed for reforms, but partisan divides prevented action, turning health care affordability into a potential flashpoint for political backlash.
3. Fragile Peace Efforts in Ukraine and Gaza
On the international front, Trump is pursuing ambitious peace deals amid ongoing conflicts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago, with discussions focusing on security guarantees, territorial issues, and a proposed demilitarized zone in contested areas. Progress has been made on a U.S.-backed framework, but Russian reluctance remains a barrier. Similarly, the Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is holding uneasily, with isolated violations and humanitarian concerns persisting. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also expected to meet with Trump soon. These high-stakes negotiations could define Trump’s foreign policy legacy but carry risks if they falter.
4. Potential Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
Trump’s economic agenda, heavily reliant on tariffs projected to generate trillions in revenue over the decade, hangs in the balance as the Supreme Court considers a case that could limit presidential authority to impose them. A decision overturning key tariffs would disrupt funding for initiatives like immigration enforcement and tax cuts, complicating Republican efforts to tout economic wins.
5. Ongoing Epstein Document Releases
The Justice Department’s continued release of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has repeatedly mentioned Trump, though without accusing him of wrongdoing. Recent batches include details of past flights on Epstein’s plane and other associations from decades ago. While the administration has dismissed some claims as false or sensational, the slow rollout risks distracting from policy debates and fueling media scrutiny at a critical time.
6. High-Stakes 2026 Midterm Elections
With all House seats and one-third of the Senate up for grabs in November, the midterms represent the biggest threat to Republican control. Historically, the president’s party loses ground, and Trump’s approval ratings—hovering around 39% in recent polls—add pressure. Issues like affordability, health care, and immigration could dominate campaigns. Trump is urging Republicans to highlight achievements such as tax cuts and economic growth, while strategists worry about voter turnout among MAGA supporters. Losing the House could empower Democrats with subpoena power and halt Trump’s legislative priorities.
As Trump balances these challenges, his ability to rally his party and deliver tangible results will be crucial. The narrow congressional majorities amplify every dispute, making compromise difficult but essential to avoid gridlock and setbacks in an election year.