A senior adviser to President Donald Trump is warning that further escalation with Iran could spiral into a disaster for the Middle East and global markets.
Speaking on the All-In Podcast, venture capitalist and Trump adviser David Sacks said the United States has already achieved major military objectives against Iran and should consider stepping back before the conflict grows more dangerous.
Sacks argued that American and allied actions have significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities, including its army, navy, and air force. Because of that, he suggested now may be the right moment for Washington to claim success and pursue a diplomatic exit.
“We’ve degraded Iranian capabilities massively,” Sacks said. “This is a good time to declare victory and get out — and that is clearly what the markets would like to see.”
Warning About Regional Fallout
Sacks cautioned that some political factions, particularly within the Republican Party, are pushing for deeper military involvement. But he warned that such a move could trigger a chain reaction across the Middle East.
One scenario he described involves Iranian retaliation targeting oil infrastructure across Gulf states. Those attacks, he said, could then spread to critical facilities such as desalination plants that supply fresh water to the region.
According to Sacks, about 100 million people on the Arabian Peninsula depend on desalinated water, meaning any disruption could quickly turn into a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Iranian officials have also signaled they are preparing for a prolonged conflict. Ali Larijani, a top Iranian security official, said Tehran is ready for a long war if necessary.
Risks for Israel and Energy Markets
Sacks also warned that a drawn-out conflict could strain the air defense systems of Israel, one of the United States’ closest allies in the region. If those defenses were overwhelmed, he suggested, the situation could escalate even further.
He described Iran as holding what he called a “dead man’s switch over the economic fate of the Gulf States,” meaning Tehran could potentially disrupt global energy markets if the fighting intensifies.
Escalation Already Underway
The warning came shortly before President Trump announced a major U.S. bombing raid on Kharg Island, a crucial Iranian oil export hub.
According to Trump, the operation destroyed multiple military targets on the island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil shipments. The strike represents one of the most significant blows to Iran’s energy infrastructure in the ongoing conflict.
While the White House framed the attack as a strategic success, Sacks’ comments highlight growing concerns that continued escalation could trigger broader instability across the region—and potentially ripple through global energy markets and the world economy.